Daily (13.03.2025): Oil prices increased on Wednesday amid Unites States sanctions on Iran and Venezuela

Oil prices climbed by around 2% on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar and a downward revision of global supply forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The agency now expects a decline in global oil stocks due to reduced crude output from Iran and Venezuela. This follows the U.S. reinstating sanctions on Iran's oil sector and revoking Venezuela's oil export license, heightening concerns over tighter supply.

Brent crude closed at $70.95 per barrel, while WTI ended at $67.68 per barrel.

UK near-term gas prices decreased on Wednesday as stronger renewables weighed on gas-for-power demand. Consequently, NBP spot price fell by 3% to settle at 105 p/therm.

Further along the curve, NBP sum-2025 delivery contract dipped by 1.4% to close at 102.77 p/therm amid eased geopolitical concerns in response to Russia’s and Ukraine agreeing to a 30-day interim ceasefire.

European spot power prices increased on Wednesday. Germany's day-ahead price edged 0.2% higher at 125.14 EUR/MWh due to lower wind generation. The French day-ahead price jumped by more than 9%, closing at 121.68 EUR/MWh, boosted by increased demand due to lower temperatures.

On the forward curve, European power prices had a mixed evolution. The German Cal-2026 contract closed at 83.62 EUR/MWh, or a 0.3% gain, due to bullish carbon prices.

In contrast, the French equivalent contract declined by 1.2% to settle at 63.88 EUR/MWh, following a decline in gas prices.

European carbon prices gained ground on Wednesday supported by a sharp rally triggered by news that UK-EU carbon market linking was under “serious consideration.” This speculation led to an 11% surge in UKA prices, which in turn fuelled a short squeeze in EUAs, forcing traders to cover their short positions.  As a result, carbon prices rose by 2 %, with the EUA Dec-2025 contract trading at 69.62 EUR/tonne.