Mar 17, 2025
The use of coal continues to be significant in the United States.
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While many nations around the globe are reducing their reliance on coal, the U.S. continues to heavily depend on this dirtiest fossil fuel for energy. Following the introduction of the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022, the U.S. has seen a rapid green energy transition, significantly boosting its renewable energy capacity and attracting billions in private investment.
Nonetheless, this transition has not diminished the U.S. dependence on coal, which remains the third-largest coal consumer globally, following China and India. The U.S. is also the fourth-largest coal producer, trailing only China, India, and Indonesia, and it possesses more coal reserves than any other nation. As of 2023, there were still 206 active coal plants in the U.S. While it is projected that about a quarter of domestic coal generation will be retired by 2040, the pace of these retirements slowed last year due to rising energy demand.
Coal production in the U.S. has decreased in recent years, coinciding with increased oil and gas production and an expansion of renewable energy capacity. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), coal production in the U.S. fell by 2.7 percent from 2022 to 2023, totaling 577.9 million short tons (MMst). During the same period, U.S. coal consumption dropped by 17.4 percent, from 515.5 MMst to 425.9 MMst, with the electric power sector accounting for 387.2 MMst (90.9 percent) of total coal consumption in 2023.
The EIA forecasts that coal’s share of U.S. electricity generation will decline to a record low of 16.1 percent in 2024 as several coal mines are retired and alternative energy sources increase. Non-coal power generation is anticipated to come from natural gas (41.6 percent), nuclear (19 percent), and renewable energy sources (22.8 percent). The EIA expects coal production in 2024 to reach 499 MMst, marking a 14.2 percent decrease from 2023, with a further decline of 5 percent in 2025, down to 474 MMst. The electricity power sector is projected to consume 384 MMst in 2024, about 1 percent less than in 2023, and 2 percent less in 2025.
However, as coal production decreases more rapidly than consumption, it is likely that there will be a dependence on existing inventories until the alternative energy capacity increases. Coal inventories were at 120 MMst by the end of July last year and are expected to drop to around 84 MMst by the end of 2025.
In terms of exports, the EIA anticipates coal exports will total 103 MMst in 2024, reflecting a 3 percent increase from 2023. This figure is predicted to rise by an additional 0.8 percent in 2025 to 103.8 MMst. The EIA noted, 'Although coal exports in our forecast remain strong, ongoing declines in coal production result from less coal being used for domestic electric power generation due to relatively low natural gas prices and 12 GW of coal-fired electricity generation capacity being retired.'
Alongside heavy domestic reliance on coal, a rise in coal consumption in Asia may boost the U.S. coal export market. In 2024, thermal coal imports in India increased by about 12 percent, while China's grew by 8 percent, a trend expected to persist for several years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that by 2035, global electricity demand would be 6 percent higher than previously forecasted, resulting in a continued reliance on coal to meet this demand.
Although domestic coal use and production in the U.S. has decreased recently, the emergence of Donald Trump as president could shift this declining trend. On his first day in office, Trump declared a national energy emergency and shortly thereafter suggested that coal could serve as a fuel source for new electric generating plants. During a virtual appearance at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump mentioned, 'They can fuel it with anything they want, and they may have coal as a backup — good, clean coal.' He also commented, 'We have more coal than anybody.' Following Trump’s remarks, shares of U.S. coal producers surged, with Peabody Energy Corp., the largest coal miner in the U.S., witnessing an increase of roughly 7.6 percent in its shares.
Despite Trump’s endorsement of coal as a 'backup' energy source, the U.S. focus on increasing oil and gas production has made natural gas cheaper, rendering coal less economically viable in comparison. While coal may be phased out more gradually under Trump, most experts agree that it is too expensive for a significant resurgence. Although rising power demand will stimulate energy production, it is expected that this demand will primarily be met through increased gas output and the growth of the nation’s renewable energy capacity.
Nonetheless, this transition has not diminished the U.S. dependence on coal, which remains the third-largest coal consumer globally, following China and India. The U.S. is also the fourth-largest coal producer, trailing only China, India, and Indonesia, and it possesses more coal reserves than any other nation. As of 2023, there were still 206 active coal plants in the U.S. While it is projected that about a quarter of domestic coal generation will be retired by 2040, the pace of these retirements slowed last year due to rising energy demand.
Coal production in the U.S. has decreased in recent years, coinciding with increased oil and gas production and an expansion of renewable energy capacity. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), coal production in the U.S. fell by 2.7 percent from 2022 to 2023, totaling 577.9 million short tons (MMst). During the same period, U.S. coal consumption dropped by 17.4 percent, from 515.5 MMst to 425.9 MMst, with the electric power sector accounting for 387.2 MMst (90.9 percent) of total coal consumption in 2023.
The EIA forecasts that coal’s share of U.S. electricity generation will decline to a record low of 16.1 percent in 2024 as several coal mines are retired and alternative energy sources increase. Non-coal power generation is anticipated to come from natural gas (41.6 percent), nuclear (19 percent), and renewable energy sources (22.8 percent). The EIA expects coal production in 2024 to reach 499 MMst, marking a 14.2 percent decrease from 2023, with a further decline of 5 percent in 2025, down to 474 MMst. The electricity power sector is projected to consume 384 MMst in 2024, about 1 percent less than in 2023, and 2 percent less in 2025.
However, as coal production decreases more rapidly than consumption, it is likely that there will be a dependence on existing inventories until the alternative energy capacity increases. Coal inventories were at 120 MMst by the end of July last year and are expected to drop to around 84 MMst by the end of 2025.
In terms of exports, the EIA anticipates coal exports will total 103 MMst in 2024, reflecting a 3 percent increase from 2023. This figure is predicted to rise by an additional 0.8 percent in 2025 to 103.8 MMst. The EIA noted, 'Although coal exports in our forecast remain strong, ongoing declines in coal production result from less coal being used for domestic electric power generation due to relatively low natural gas prices and 12 GW of coal-fired electricity generation capacity being retired.'
Alongside heavy domestic reliance on coal, a rise in coal consumption in Asia may boost the U.S. coal export market. In 2024, thermal coal imports in India increased by about 12 percent, while China's grew by 8 percent, a trend expected to persist for several years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that by 2035, global electricity demand would be 6 percent higher than previously forecasted, resulting in a continued reliance on coal to meet this demand.
Although domestic coal use and production in the U.S. has decreased recently, the emergence of Donald Trump as president could shift this declining trend. On his first day in office, Trump declared a national energy emergency and shortly thereafter suggested that coal could serve as a fuel source for new electric generating plants. During a virtual appearance at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump mentioned, 'They can fuel it with anything they want, and they may have coal as a backup — good, clean coal.' He also commented, 'We have more coal than anybody.' Following Trump’s remarks, shares of U.S. coal producers surged, with Peabody Energy Corp., the largest coal miner in the U.S., witnessing an increase of roughly 7.6 percent in its shares.
Despite Trump’s endorsement of coal as a 'backup' energy source, the U.S. focus on increasing oil and gas production has made natural gas cheaper, rendering coal less economically viable in comparison. While coal may be phased out more gradually under Trump, most experts agree that it is too expensive for a significant resurgence. Although rising power demand will stimulate energy production, it is expected that this demand will primarily be met through increased gas output and the growth of the nation’s renewable energy capacity.