May 9, 2025
FinBalt's gas demand decreased compared to the previous year in April.
Gas demand in the Finnish and Baltic region decreased by 4% year-on-year in April, even though gas-fired power generation rose nearly 50%.
Total consumption in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania dropped to 3.42 TWh in April, down from 3.56 TWh last year and below the three-year average of 5.12 TWh from 2019-21, although it was still higher than in 2022 and 2023.
Lithuania continued to be the largest gas consumer in the region, maintaining this status since June, largely due to a significant rise in gas-fired power generation, which surged by almost 400% year-on-year in April to 254 MW, according to Fraunhofer ISE data, offsetting a 43% decrease in Finnish production. After the Baltic states' separation from the post-Soviet Brell system, gas-fired plants have become crucial not only for electricity generation but also for ancillary services like frequency reserves. Despite a more than 5% decline in domestic power consumption and an increase in renewable output, Lithuania's gas-fired output rose, allowing the country to reduce its power imports to 104 MW from 546 MW the previous year.
While power sector gas demand increased in April, overall consumption in the region fell, indicating reduced demand from households and industries. Weather conditions varied, with lower average minimum temperatures in Vilnius and Riga compared to last year, but warmer in Tallinn and Helsinki. Nonetheless, overnight lows in all four capitals remained above the 2015-24 average, limiting heating demand during the shoulder month.
Traded volumes on the GET Baltic gas exchange rose to 1.1 TWh in April, an unusually high figure for this time of year, with 56% of the volume traded in Lithuania, 28% in the Estonia-Latvia market area, and 16% in Finland. The average price on GET Baltic decreased by about 8% from March to €39.40/MWh. The full integration of GET Baltic into the European Energy Exchange (EEX) has been postponed to 9 September, having initially been set for 27 May.
From January to April, FinBalt consumption totaled 18.43 TWh, down from 20.04 TWh in the same period of 2024.
The only storage facility in Latvia concluded the storage year on 1 May with stocks at 8.4 TWh, lower than 11.3 TWh last year and 9 TWh in 2023, but still above levels since 2018. All capacity for the 2024-25 storage year has been fully booked at just over 23 TWh, while the allocation for the 2025-26 cycle has been set at 17 TWh, about 68% of the total technical capacity of 24.9 TWh. Reduced interest in 2025-26 capacity may stem from consistently positive summer-winter spreads, which offered no financial incentive to book storage, though these spreads normalized by April. Lower booked volumes occurred despite operator Conexus successfully selling all 9 TWh of a new five-year capacity product it offered in February and March.
Injection season has started slowly, with no net injections into Incukalns until 24 April. Last year, there were brief net injections from 1-4 April averaging 54 GWh/d, while this year's April averaged net withdrawals of 32 GWh/d, with injections only occurring from 24-30 April. The slow stockbuild has continued into May, with 35 GWh of net injections on 1 May, followed by minor net withdrawals of 0.2 GWh/d from 2-6 May, contrasting with last year's average net injections of 47 GWh/d in the same timeframe.
Despite the weak injections, overall LNG sendout from the region's terminals — Klaipeda, Inkoo, and Hamina — significantly increased from April, nearly doubling to 150 GWh/d from 80 GWh/d. Sendout averaged 84 GWh/d during the same period last year.
Rather than injecting all regasified LNG, some is being sent to Poland at Santaka, with exit flows averaging 22 GWh/d from 1-7 May, reversing from net inflows of 2 GWh/d in April. This shift is likely linked to Polish incumbent Orlen's agreements to supply LNG to Ukraine's Naftogaz, with one contract specifying delivery to Klaipeda for transit to the Ukrainian border.
Total consumption in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania dropped to 3.42 TWh in April, down from 3.56 TWh last year and below the three-year average of 5.12 TWh from 2019-21, although it was still higher than in 2022 and 2023.
Lithuania continued to be the largest gas consumer in the region, maintaining this status since June, largely due to a significant rise in gas-fired power generation, which surged by almost 400% year-on-year in April to 254 MW, according to Fraunhofer ISE data, offsetting a 43% decrease in Finnish production. After the Baltic states' separation from the post-Soviet Brell system, gas-fired plants have become crucial not only for electricity generation but also for ancillary services like frequency reserves. Despite a more than 5% decline in domestic power consumption and an increase in renewable output, Lithuania's gas-fired output rose, allowing the country to reduce its power imports to 104 MW from 546 MW the previous year.
While power sector gas demand increased in April, overall consumption in the region fell, indicating reduced demand from households and industries. Weather conditions varied, with lower average minimum temperatures in Vilnius and Riga compared to last year, but warmer in Tallinn and Helsinki. Nonetheless, overnight lows in all four capitals remained above the 2015-24 average, limiting heating demand during the shoulder month.
Traded volumes on the GET Baltic gas exchange rose to 1.1 TWh in April, an unusually high figure for this time of year, with 56% of the volume traded in Lithuania, 28% in the Estonia-Latvia market area, and 16% in Finland. The average price on GET Baltic decreased by about 8% from March to €39.40/MWh. The full integration of GET Baltic into the European Energy Exchange (EEX) has been postponed to 9 September, having initially been set for 27 May.
From January to April, FinBalt consumption totaled 18.43 TWh, down from 20.04 TWh in the same period of 2024.
The only storage facility in Latvia concluded the storage year on 1 May with stocks at 8.4 TWh, lower than 11.3 TWh last year and 9 TWh in 2023, but still above levels since 2018. All capacity for the 2024-25 storage year has been fully booked at just over 23 TWh, while the allocation for the 2025-26 cycle has been set at 17 TWh, about 68% of the total technical capacity of 24.9 TWh. Reduced interest in 2025-26 capacity may stem from consistently positive summer-winter spreads, which offered no financial incentive to book storage, though these spreads normalized by April. Lower booked volumes occurred despite operator Conexus successfully selling all 9 TWh of a new five-year capacity product it offered in February and March.
Injection season has started slowly, with no net injections into Incukalns until 24 April. Last year, there were brief net injections from 1-4 April averaging 54 GWh/d, while this year's April averaged net withdrawals of 32 GWh/d, with injections only occurring from 24-30 April. The slow stockbuild has continued into May, with 35 GWh of net injections on 1 May, followed by minor net withdrawals of 0.2 GWh/d from 2-6 May, contrasting with last year's average net injections of 47 GWh/d in the same timeframe.
Despite the weak injections, overall LNG sendout from the region's terminals — Klaipeda, Inkoo, and Hamina — significantly increased from April, nearly doubling to 150 GWh/d from 80 GWh/d. Sendout averaged 84 GWh/d during the same period last year.
Rather than injecting all regasified LNG, some is being sent to Poland at Santaka, with exit flows averaging 22 GWh/d from 1-7 May, reversing from net inflows of 2 GWh/d in April. This shift is likely linked to Polish incumbent Orlen's agreements to supply LNG to Ukraine's Naftogaz, with one contract specifying delivery to Klaipeda for transit to the Ukrainian border.