May 21, 2025
OPEC is still hopeful about oil demand even with economic uncertainties.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais stated on Tuesday that the organization's outlook for global oil demand growth is "generally optimistic," despite challenges such as trade risks and global economic uncertainties. Al Ghais led the 17th Technical Meeting of OPEC and Non-OPEC Countries involved in the 'Charter of Cooperation,' which included representatives from OPEC+ nations and industry experts.
The meeting addressed the short-to medium-term perspectives of the global oil market, focusing on demand, supply, trade, and the economy, as reported by the OPEC Secretariat. In his opening statements, Al Ghais remarked that OPEC's outlook remains positive even with recent economic fluctuations, projecting a global economic growth of 2.9% this year and 3.1% in 2026.
OPEC anticipates that global oil demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in both 2025 and 2026, a figure maintained in last week's Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). However, the report indicated that reduced upstream investment due to declining oil prices would likely slow supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers this year and next.
Supply from OPEC+ competitors, including the U.S., is expected to increase by 800,000 bpd in 2025, a decrease from the previously estimated 900,000 bpd. U.S. crude oil and condensate production is projected to grow by 130,000 bpd this year and just 44,000 bpd year-over-year in 2026, according to OPEC's estimations.
The organization foresees a decline in capital expenditure on exploration and production among non-OPEC+ producers in 2025 and 2026 following modest growth in 2024. Specifically, U.S. upstream E&P liquids investment is estimated to have fallen by 8% to approximately $125 billion in 2024, with further declines anticipated of about 9% and 7% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, as per OPEC's projections.
The meeting addressed the short-to medium-term perspectives of the global oil market, focusing on demand, supply, trade, and the economy, as reported by the OPEC Secretariat. In his opening statements, Al Ghais remarked that OPEC's outlook remains positive even with recent economic fluctuations, projecting a global economic growth of 2.9% this year and 3.1% in 2026.
OPEC anticipates that global oil demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in both 2025 and 2026, a figure maintained in last week's Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). However, the report indicated that reduced upstream investment due to declining oil prices would likely slow supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers this year and next.
Supply from OPEC+ competitors, including the U.S., is expected to increase by 800,000 bpd in 2025, a decrease from the previously estimated 900,000 bpd. U.S. crude oil and condensate production is projected to grow by 130,000 bpd this year and just 44,000 bpd year-over-year in 2026, according to OPEC's estimations.
The organization foresees a decline in capital expenditure on exploration and production among non-OPEC+ producers in 2025 and 2026 following modest growth in 2024. Specifically, U.S. upstream E&P liquids investment is estimated to have fallen by 8% to approximately $125 billion in 2024, with further declines anticipated of about 9% and 7% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, as per OPEC's projections.