Jun 10, 2025
OPEC's oil production did not meet the OPEC+ target in May.
OPEC's crude oil production in May rose less than expected under the OPEC+ agreement, which had aimed for a significant increase.
According to a Reuters survey, all 12 OPEC members produced 26.75 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, an increase of 150,000 bpd from April. The five OPEC members committed to cuts under the OPEC+ agreement were supposed to raise their total output by 310,000 bpd but only increased it by 180,000 bpd, as found in the survey based on data from oil-flow tracking firms, OPEC sources, and oil companies.
Iraq reduced output to address past overproduction, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE raised theirs less than expected. Saudi Arabia made the largest increase in May, raising output by 130,000 bpd.
It is typical for Saudi Arabia to have the largest share of cuts. OPEC+ producers who had previously cut production are now gradually increasing it by 411,000 bpd over May, June, and July.
Earlier this month, OPEC+ decided to boost July production by another 411,000 bpd, pointing to "current healthy oil market fundamentals and steady global economic outlook."
However, commodity analysts from Morgan Stanley noted that the anticipated 411,000 bpd increase for May did not occur, stating that despite a 1 million-barrel-a-day rise in production quotas from March to June, actual production increases are hard to identify, especially in Saudi Arabia. Despite this, the bank expects OPEC+ to add around 420,000 bpd to its crude production from June to September, potentially leading to a market surplus.
According to a Reuters survey, all 12 OPEC members produced 26.75 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, an increase of 150,000 bpd from April. The five OPEC members committed to cuts under the OPEC+ agreement were supposed to raise their total output by 310,000 bpd but only increased it by 180,000 bpd, as found in the survey based on data from oil-flow tracking firms, OPEC sources, and oil companies.
Iraq reduced output to address past overproduction, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE raised theirs less than expected. Saudi Arabia made the largest increase in May, raising output by 130,000 bpd.
It is typical for Saudi Arabia to have the largest share of cuts. OPEC+ producers who had previously cut production are now gradually increasing it by 411,000 bpd over May, June, and July.
Earlier this month, OPEC+ decided to boost July production by another 411,000 bpd, pointing to "current healthy oil market fundamentals and steady global economic outlook."
However, commodity analysts from Morgan Stanley noted that the anticipated 411,000 bpd increase for May did not occur, stating that despite a 1 million-barrel-a-day rise in production quotas from March to June, actual production increases are hard to identify, especially in Saudi Arabia. Despite this, the bank expects OPEC+ to add around 420,000 bpd to its crude production from June to September, potentially leading to a market surplus.