Jun 12, 2025

EU considers a flexible goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040.


EU Commission's climate director general Kurt Vandenberghe indicated today that the commission's upcoming proposal for a 2040 net greenhouse gas reduction may allow for greater flexibility, though specifics were not provided. He expressed hope that the 90% target, relative to 1990 levels, would gain agreement with the necessary flexibility, while omitting details about what a more adaptable 2040 target would entail.

The proposal to revise the European Climate Law with a GHG target for 2040 is scheduled for 2 July. This will be succeeded by legal proposals in 2026 outlining the climate framework post-2030, including a revision of the emissions trading system (ETS) directive. Vandenberghe emphasized that revenue from heavy industries through the ETS should partially support their decarbonization. He reassured that the commission is pragmatic about achieving a 90% GHG reduction but aims to maintain progress.

Centre-right EPP’s Radan Kanev also seeks an ambitious but realistic 2040 target around 90%, noting a change in the political majority for climate action since the 2030 targets were set. He mentioned that currently, few EU states support the 90% target for 2040, and public opinion is still distant from this goal. Vanderberghe acknowledged concerns regarding the ETS extension to road transport and heating fuels, stating that unexpected spikes in carbon prices would not be beneficial. The commission also plans to address the agri-food sector over the next decade, emphasizing collaboration rather than opposition between climate goals and agricultural interests.

The European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change recently recommended a 90-95% domestic reduction target for 2040, arguing that a lower target would harm the bloc's sustainability and competitiveness. Vanderberghe discussed the need for less rigidity in future targets and rules for 2040, admitting that previous frameworks for 2030 were possibly too prescriptive, and stressed the importance of carbon removals for achieving net zero by 2050. He noted that if implementation of the Paris Agreement's Article 6 is successful, the possibility of using international credits as part of the 90% target should not be overlooked.