Jun 18, 2025
IEA Reinforces Its Peak Oil Demand Prediction
A peak in global oil demand is anticipated soon, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which reaffirmed its prediction that demand will stabilize by the decade's end. China's oil demand, projected to rise by a total of 6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2024, is expected to peak sooner than previously thought, as noted in the IEA's annual Oil 2025 report. Although China, the world's largest crude oil importer, made up 60% of the global rise in oil consumption from 2015 to 2024, the outlook for 2030 appears quite different. The IEA forecasts that China's demand will peak in 2027—two years earlier than expected—due to a significant increase in electric vehicle sales, the growth of trucks using liquefied natural gas (LNG), expansion of the high-speed rail system, and structural economic changes.
Globally, oil demand is predicted to grow by 2.5 million bpd from 2024 to 2030, reaching around 105.5 million bpd by the end of the decade. Annual global growth is expected to slow from approximately 700,000 bpd in 2025 and 2026 to a minimal increase over the following years, with a slight decline anticipated in 2030, based on current policies and market trends. The agency also foresees subpar economic growth due to global trade issues and fiscal imbalances, along with a shift away from oil in transportation and power generation. Meanwhile, the rise in global oil supply is projected to exceed demand growth in the coming years.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated, “Oil markets are expected to be well-supplied in the coming years,” though he noted the significant geopolitical risks to oil supply security. If no major supply disruptions arise, the market should be sufficiently supplied through 2030, but uncertainties persist due to increasing geopolitical tensions and trade issues. The IEA's "peak demand on the horizon" viewpoint contrasts with OPEC's belief in rising oil demand at least until the 2040s. Recently, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais stated that oil demand would keep growing as the global population increases, asserting that there is no impending "peak in oil demand."
Globally, oil demand is predicted to grow by 2.5 million bpd from 2024 to 2030, reaching around 105.5 million bpd by the end of the decade. Annual global growth is expected to slow from approximately 700,000 bpd in 2025 and 2026 to a minimal increase over the following years, with a slight decline anticipated in 2030, based on current policies and market trends. The agency also foresees subpar economic growth due to global trade issues and fiscal imbalances, along with a shift away from oil in transportation and power generation. Meanwhile, the rise in global oil supply is projected to exceed demand growth in the coming years.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated, “Oil markets are expected to be well-supplied in the coming years,” though he noted the significant geopolitical risks to oil supply security. If no major supply disruptions arise, the market should be sufficiently supplied through 2030, but uncertainties persist due to increasing geopolitical tensions and trade issues. The IEA's "peak demand on the horizon" viewpoint contrasts with OPEC's belief in rising oil demand at least until the 2040s. Recently, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais stated that oil demand would keep growing as the global population increases, asserting that there is no impending "peak in oil demand."