Jul 4, 2025

OPEC+ is scheduled to implement another significant increase in oil production on Saturday.

Eight OPEC+ countries are expected to approve an accelerated oil output increase for August at a meeting on Saturday, according to sources familiar with the group, as they aim to regain market share. The group, which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Algeria, is likely to agree on raising output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd). If approved, this would raise OPEC+ supply targets by approximately 1.78 million bpd, representing 1.5% of global oil consumption, though actual increases have been lower due to some members reducing output to offset prior overproduction.

On Friday, the group decided to reschedule the meeting to an earlier date, with uncertainty remaining about whether 411,000 bpd will be the final figure. OPEC+ shifted its policy this year after years of cuts totaling over 5 million bpd, beginning to reverse a recent cut of 2.2 million bpd starting in April and increasing production in May, June, and July, despite the additional supply impacting crude prices.

This change followed overproduction by some members, like Kazakhstan, which caused frustration among those adhering to agreed cuts. Kazakhstan's output grew last month, reaching an all-time high due to increased production from the Chevron-led Tengiz field, as reported by a knowledgeable source.

OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, is seeking to expand its market share amid rising supplies from other nations, particularly the United States. The group accounts for about half of the world's oil supply. As of their July decision, the OPEC+ eight have either made or announced production increases totaling 1.37 million bpd, representing 62% of the production cut they are reversing.