Jul 7, 2025
Daily (07.07.2025): Heatwave relief drove down European power and carbon prices on Friday
Crude oil prices eased on Friday in thin holiday trading, as markets awaited the weekend’s OPEC+ meeting amid expectations of a potential output hike. With U.S. markets shut for Independence Day, trading volumes were low. Investors also looked ahead to post-9 July trade developments for possible effects on economic growth and oil demand.
Hence, Brent crude traded 0.7% lower, closing at $68.30 per barrel. Meanwhile, WTI crude declined by 0.8% to $66.50 per barrel.
Despite forecasts suggesting the heatwave may ease, the NBP spot price rose by 0.6% to 78.50 p/therm on Friday, as concerns persisted that high temperatures could still limit nuclear output in France.
Further along the curve, the Winter 2025 delivery contract held steady at 92.31 p/therm, with continued worries over low gas storage levels in Germany, home to Europe’s largest reserves, partly offset by growing hopes that storage injections could soon resume.
European spot power prices continued to fall on Friday. The German spot price tumbled by over 32% to 53.86 EUR/MWh, driven by stronger wind output, lower demand, and a drop in temperatures. Meanwhile, the French spot price slumped by nearly 57% to 31.27 EUR/MWh, with temperatures still 1.8C higher than normal, but down 2.3C from this week’s average.
Forward prices also slipped, as markets calmed following the heatwave and subdued seasonal demand. The German Cal-2026 contract held steady at 86.80 EUR/MWh. Meanwhile, the French similar contract declined by 0.1%, closing at 63.46 EUR/MWh.
European carbon prices edged lower on Friday during a subdued session, influenced by reduced demand for fossil-fuel power amid milder weather and lower trading activity due to the U.S. holiday. Consequently, EUAs expiring in Dec-2025 lost 0.5% to 71.67 EUR/tonne.
Hence, Brent crude traded 0.7% lower, closing at $68.30 per barrel. Meanwhile, WTI crude declined by 0.8% to $66.50 per barrel.
Despite forecasts suggesting the heatwave may ease, the NBP spot price rose by 0.6% to 78.50 p/therm on Friday, as concerns persisted that high temperatures could still limit nuclear output in France.
Further along the curve, the Winter 2025 delivery contract held steady at 92.31 p/therm, with continued worries over low gas storage levels in Germany, home to Europe’s largest reserves, partly offset by growing hopes that storage injections could soon resume.
European spot power prices continued to fall on Friday. The German spot price tumbled by over 32% to 53.86 EUR/MWh, driven by stronger wind output, lower demand, and a drop in temperatures. Meanwhile, the French spot price slumped by nearly 57% to 31.27 EUR/MWh, with temperatures still 1.8C higher than normal, but down 2.3C from this week’s average.
Forward prices also slipped, as markets calmed following the heatwave and subdued seasonal demand. The German Cal-2026 contract held steady at 86.80 EUR/MWh. Meanwhile, the French similar contract declined by 0.1%, closing at 63.46 EUR/MWh.
European carbon prices edged lower on Friday during a subdued session, influenced by reduced demand for fossil-fuel power amid milder weather and lower trading activity due to the U.S. holiday. Consequently, EUAs expiring in Dec-2025 lost 0.5% to 71.67 EUR/tonne.