Jul 7, 2025
Goldman Sachs predicts that OPEC+ countries will raise oil production by 550,000 barrels per day in September.
Goldman Sachs anticipates that eight OPEC+ members will increase oil production quotas by 550,000 barrels per day in September, completing the rollback of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts to normalize spare capacity amid strong global demand.
This projection, released on Sunday, follows an OPEC+ decision on Saturday to raise production by 548,000 bpd in August, marking a significant output increase after recent oil price fluctuations linked to Israeli and U.S. actions against Iran.
Goldman noted that the decision to boost supply enhances their confidence in a long-term shift toward balancing spare capacity and market share, while also maintaining internal cohesion and managing U.S. shale production.
The bank expects crude output from these eight OPEC+ nations, which include Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Algeria, to rise by 1.67 million bpd from March to September, reaching a total of 33.2 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia contributing over 60% of this increase.
Goldman kept its Brent crude price forecast at $59 per barrel for Q4 2025 and $56 for 2026, citing factors like supply shortfalls, particularly in Russia, and reduced spare capacity influencing long-term prices.
Additionally, Goldman identified potential increases in oil demand, projecting a rise of 600,000 bpd in 2025 and 1 million bpd in 2026, driven by strong Chinese demand, healthy global economic activity, and further depreciation of the U.S. dollar.
While the bank views the risks for its 2025 price forecast as balanced, it sees downside risks for 2026 due to the potential unwinding of OPEC+ cuts and a 30% chance of a U.S. recession.
This projection, released on Sunday, follows an OPEC+ decision on Saturday to raise production by 548,000 bpd in August, marking a significant output increase after recent oil price fluctuations linked to Israeli and U.S. actions against Iran.
Goldman noted that the decision to boost supply enhances their confidence in a long-term shift toward balancing spare capacity and market share, while also maintaining internal cohesion and managing U.S. shale production.
The bank expects crude output from these eight OPEC+ nations, which include Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Algeria, to rise by 1.67 million bpd from March to September, reaching a total of 33.2 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia contributing over 60% of this increase.
Goldman kept its Brent crude price forecast at $59 per barrel for Q4 2025 and $56 for 2026, citing factors like supply shortfalls, particularly in Russia, and reduced spare capacity influencing long-term prices.
Additionally, Goldman identified potential increases in oil demand, projecting a rise of 600,000 bpd in 2025 and 1 million bpd in 2026, driven by strong Chinese demand, healthy global economic activity, and further depreciation of the U.S. dollar.
While the bank views the risks for its 2025 price forecast as balanced, it sees downside risks for 2026 due to the potential unwinding of OPEC+ cuts and a 30% chance of a U.S. recession.