Aug 13, 2025
OPEC raises its forecast for oil demand in 2026.
**Crude Oil Price Movements**
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) price rose by $1.24 from the previous month to an average of $70.97 per barrel. The ICE Brent front-month contract fell by 25 cents to an average of $69.55 per barrel, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract decreased by 9 cents to $67.24 per barrel. Conversely, the GME Oman front-month contract increased by $1.93 to average $71.42 per barrel. The spread between ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts narrowed by 16 cents to $2.31 per barrel. Both the ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forward curves flattened slightly but remained in strong backwardation, whereas the GME Oman forward curve continued to strengthen, moving into more noticeable backwardation. Hedge funds and money managers significantly boosted their bullish positions on ICE Brent while sharply reducing their NYMEX WTI net long positions.
**World Economy**
The global economy is projected to sustain stable growth, bolstered by solid momentum seen in the first half of 2025. The growth forecast for the global economy in 2025 has been slightly increased to 3.0%, while the 2026 forecast remains robust at 3.1%. The US growth forecast for 2025 is also slightly raised to 1.8% but holds steady at 2.1% for 2026. Japan's forecasts remain at 1.0% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026. Eurozone growth forecasts have been slightly revised upward to 1.2% for both years. China's growth forecast for 2025 has been slightly increased to 4.8%, while it stays at 4.5% for 2026. India's forecasts remain unchanged at 6.5% for both years, and Brazil’s remains stable at 2.3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026. Russia's growth forecasts for both years also remain steady at 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively.
**World Oil Demand**
The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 remains unchanged at 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year. Minor adjustments have been made based on actual data for the first two quarters of 2025. In the OECD, oil demand is expected to increase by about 0.1 mb/d in 2025, while non-OECD demand is projected to grow by 1.2 mb/d. In 2026, global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.4 mb/d, adjusted upward by 0.1 mb/d due to favorable economic conditions. OECD demand is projected to grow by about 0.2 mb/d, whereas non-OECD demand is anticipated to expand by 1.2 mb/d.
**World Oil Supply**
Non-DoC liquids production is projected to grow by about 0.8 mb/d year-on-year in 2025, remaining unchanged from previous estimates. Key growth contributors are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. The growth forecast for non-DoC liquids production in 2026 has been slightly revised down by 0.1 mb/d to 0.6 mb/d year-on-year, driven mainly by Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina. Additionally, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are anticipated to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2025, averaging 8.7 mb/d, with a similar increase projected for 2026, averaging 8.8 mb/d. Crude oil production from DoC countries increased by 335 thousand barrels per day in July to an average of about 41.94 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) price rose by $1.24 from the previous month to an average of $70.97 per barrel. The ICE Brent front-month contract fell by 25 cents to an average of $69.55 per barrel, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract decreased by 9 cents to $67.24 per barrel. Conversely, the GME Oman front-month contract increased by $1.93 to average $71.42 per barrel. The spread between ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts narrowed by 16 cents to $2.31 per barrel. Both the ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forward curves flattened slightly but remained in strong backwardation, whereas the GME Oman forward curve continued to strengthen, moving into more noticeable backwardation. Hedge funds and money managers significantly boosted their bullish positions on ICE Brent while sharply reducing their NYMEX WTI net long positions.
**World Economy**
The global economy is projected to sustain stable growth, bolstered by solid momentum seen in the first half of 2025. The growth forecast for the global economy in 2025 has been slightly increased to 3.0%, while the 2026 forecast remains robust at 3.1%. The US growth forecast for 2025 is also slightly raised to 1.8% but holds steady at 2.1% for 2026. Japan's forecasts remain at 1.0% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026. Eurozone growth forecasts have been slightly revised upward to 1.2% for both years. China's growth forecast for 2025 has been slightly increased to 4.8%, while it stays at 4.5% for 2026. India's forecasts remain unchanged at 6.5% for both years, and Brazil’s remains stable at 2.3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026. Russia's growth forecasts for both years also remain steady at 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively.
**World Oil Demand**
The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 remains unchanged at 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year. Minor adjustments have been made based on actual data for the first two quarters of 2025. In the OECD, oil demand is expected to increase by about 0.1 mb/d in 2025, while non-OECD demand is projected to grow by 1.2 mb/d. In 2026, global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.4 mb/d, adjusted upward by 0.1 mb/d due to favorable economic conditions. OECD demand is projected to grow by about 0.2 mb/d, whereas non-OECD demand is anticipated to expand by 1.2 mb/d.
**World Oil Supply**
Non-DoC liquids production is projected to grow by about 0.8 mb/d year-on-year in 2025, remaining unchanged from previous estimates. Key growth contributors are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. The growth forecast for non-DoC liquids production in 2026 has been slightly revised down by 0.1 mb/d to 0.6 mb/d year-on-year, driven mainly by Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina. Additionally, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are anticipated to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2025, averaging 8.7 mb/d, with a similar increase projected for 2026, averaging 8.8 mb/d. Crude oil production from DoC countries increased by 335 thousand barrels per day in July to an average of about 41.94 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.