Oct 1, 2025
Hydrogen Europe reduces its forecast for clean hydrogen supply in 2030.
Industry group Hydrogen Europe has revised its 2030 clean hydrogen supply forecast for Europe down to 2.3 million tons per year, down from last year's 2.5 million tons, anticipating that less than 20% of announced capacity will be operational by that time.
In its Clean Hydrogen Monitor 2025, the group estimates 1.7 million tons per year from electrolysis and 600,000 tons per year from "thermochemical" processes, mainly involving natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS).
The reduction is mainly due to a 25% cut in CCS projections, attributed to delays in UK and Benelux projects.
Electrolysis capacity is expected to reach 15 GW by 2030, down from last year's 16.4 GW estimate. The EU aimed for 6 GW of installed electrolysis capacity by 2024, but as of July 2025, only 600 MW was operational and 2.8 GW was under construction.
Of the 2.3 million tons per year potential for 2030, only 26% is currently under construction, with about 300,000 tons per year each from electrolytic and thermochemical projects.
Hydrogen Europe is monitoring 862 projects across Europe, down from 900 last year, with a combined capacity of 12.7 million tons per year, a 12% decrease from the previous year. The 2.3 million tons per year forecast comprises just 18% of this capacity, as many projects are expected to develop only after 2030 or not at all.
This supply outlook is based on a "bottom-up approach" considering project maturity, funding, and demand incentives.
The IEA and Hydrogen Council have made slightly higher global realization rate estimates through 2030 but have also lowered their supply projections from 2024.
Hydrogen Europe identifies challenges for developers, including slow progress in the EU's renewable energy directive (RED III), weak demand signals, high production costs from strict regulations, and fragmented public funding.
Production potential varies across Europe, with the Nordic countries projected to provide over 20% of the European supply by 2030 at 510,000 tons per year, slightly reduced from last year. Projections for Portugal and Spain have been raised to a total of 390,000 tons per year from 350,000 due to stronger project pipelines and RED III advancements. The UK projections were sharply decreased due to anticipated delays in CCS capacity, while Germany's outlook was slightly lowered and France remained stable.
In its Clean Hydrogen Monitor 2025, the group estimates 1.7 million tons per year from electrolysis and 600,000 tons per year from "thermochemical" processes, mainly involving natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS).
The reduction is mainly due to a 25% cut in CCS projections, attributed to delays in UK and Benelux projects.
Electrolysis capacity is expected to reach 15 GW by 2030, down from last year's 16.4 GW estimate. The EU aimed for 6 GW of installed electrolysis capacity by 2024, but as of July 2025, only 600 MW was operational and 2.8 GW was under construction.
Of the 2.3 million tons per year potential for 2030, only 26% is currently under construction, with about 300,000 tons per year each from electrolytic and thermochemical projects.
Hydrogen Europe is monitoring 862 projects across Europe, down from 900 last year, with a combined capacity of 12.7 million tons per year, a 12% decrease from the previous year. The 2.3 million tons per year forecast comprises just 18% of this capacity, as many projects are expected to develop only after 2030 or not at all.
This supply outlook is based on a "bottom-up approach" considering project maturity, funding, and demand incentives.
The IEA and Hydrogen Council have made slightly higher global realization rate estimates through 2030 but have also lowered their supply projections from 2024.
Hydrogen Europe identifies challenges for developers, including slow progress in the EU's renewable energy directive (RED III), weak demand signals, high production costs from strict regulations, and fragmented public funding.
Production potential varies across Europe, with the Nordic countries projected to provide over 20% of the European supply by 2030 at 510,000 tons per year, slightly reduced from last year. Projections for Portugal and Spain have been raised to a total of 390,000 tons per year from 350,000 due to stronger project pipelines and RED III advancements. The UK projections were sharply decreased due to anticipated delays in CCS capacity, while Germany's outlook was slightly lowered and France remained stable.