Oct 1, 2025
Global crude exports are expected to reach a record level in October.
We previously noted that U.S. oil production has continued to rise this year despite low oil prices. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. crude oil production reached a record 13.58 million barrels per day (mb/d) in June 2025, surpassing the previous high from October 2024 by 50 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) and the pre-COVID peak from November 2019 by 582 kb/d. Experts at Standard Chartered expect U.S. production to keep increasing, peaking at 14.34 mb/d in March 2026.
Commodity experts have now reported that global crude exports are consistently setting new records. FGE estimates that global crude exports rose by 0.7 million barrels per day in September compared to August, reaching 40.4 million barrels per day (mmb/d), up from a 0.6 mmb/d increase in August.
FGE attributes this rise to increased shipments from Saudi Arabia (+358 kb/d) and Iraq (+120 kb/d) following the end of the crude-burning season, along with the Yellowtail project in Guyana (+76 kb/d). They predict this trend will continue in October, with loadings increasing by 0.6 mb/d to 41 mb/d, guided by shipments from Brazil (+120 kb/d) and Guyana (+29 kb/d) reaching new highs. However, Iranian crude loadings are anticipated to decline to a multi-month low of 1.4 mb/d (-100 kb/d) in October.
FGE forecasts that the recent rally in freight costs will taper off. VLCC freight rates to Asia have surged, indicating that the marginal market remains in the East. Export patterns are influenced by the surplus in the Atlantic Basin and the need to export to the East. Charter rates for VLCCs moving from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia have risen to $70,000 per day, with rates for those traveling from the Middle East to China reaching as high as $100,000 per day.
While FGE stays optimistic about freight in the short term, they expect that by late October or early November, the Asian market may become oversaturated with incoming Atlantic Basin flows. Analysts foresee the Asian market transitioning to a contango state as demand for crude decreases and OPEC+ production cuts unwind, impacting global crude balances. This scenario will lead to storage economics competing with export economics, shifting the marginal market for Atlantic Basin crude from the East back to the West, thus ending the freight rally.
Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for oil prices is uncertain.
Recently, some analysts on Wall Street have warned of a potential surplus in oil markets, which could further depress prices. Goldman Sachs predicts that oil markets might be oversupplied by 1.9 million b/d in 2026 due to OPEC+ scaling back production cuts and rising output in the Americas. Wall Street now anticipates oil prices could drop into the $50s per barrel next year, adding to this year’s decline.
In contrast, analysts at Standard Chartered expect oil prices to rise in the coming year due to strong demand and economic stimulus initiatives. They acknowledge that U.S. supply has reached a record high this year but believe producers will need to cut output because of low prices. On the demand front, anticipated weaker global demand in the last quarter of the year, influenced by trade conflicts and tariffs, may prompt economic stimulus measures in the U.S. and possible responses from China.
Commodity experts have now reported that global crude exports are consistently setting new records. FGE estimates that global crude exports rose by 0.7 million barrels per day in September compared to August, reaching 40.4 million barrels per day (mmb/d), up from a 0.6 mmb/d increase in August.
FGE attributes this rise to increased shipments from Saudi Arabia (+358 kb/d) and Iraq (+120 kb/d) following the end of the crude-burning season, along with the Yellowtail project in Guyana (+76 kb/d). They predict this trend will continue in October, with loadings increasing by 0.6 mb/d to 41 mb/d, guided by shipments from Brazil (+120 kb/d) and Guyana (+29 kb/d) reaching new highs. However, Iranian crude loadings are anticipated to decline to a multi-month low of 1.4 mb/d (-100 kb/d) in October.
FGE forecasts that the recent rally in freight costs will taper off. VLCC freight rates to Asia have surged, indicating that the marginal market remains in the East. Export patterns are influenced by the surplus in the Atlantic Basin and the need to export to the East. Charter rates for VLCCs moving from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia have risen to $70,000 per day, with rates for those traveling from the Middle East to China reaching as high as $100,000 per day.
While FGE stays optimistic about freight in the short term, they expect that by late October or early November, the Asian market may become oversaturated with incoming Atlantic Basin flows. Analysts foresee the Asian market transitioning to a contango state as demand for crude decreases and OPEC+ production cuts unwind, impacting global crude balances. This scenario will lead to storage economics competing with export economics, shifting the marginal market for Atlantic Basin crude from the East back to the West, thus ending the freight rally.
Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for oil prices is uncertain.
Recently, some analysts on Wall Street have warned of a potential surplus in oil markets, which could further depress prices. Goldman Sachs predicts that oil markets might be oversupplied by 1.9 million b/d in 2026 due to OPEC+ scaling back production cuts and rising output in the Americas. Wall Street now anticipates oil prices could drop into the $50s per barrel next year, adding to this year’s decline.
In contrast, analysts at Standard Chartered expect oil prices to rise in the coming year due to strong demand and economic stimulus initiatives. They acknowledge that U.S. supply has reached a record high this year but believe producers will need to cut output because of low prices. On the demand front, anticipated weaker global demand in the last quarter of the year, influenced by trade conflicts and tariffs, may prompt economic stimulus measures in the U.S. and possible responses from China.