Nov 4, 2025
Daily (04.11.2025): EUAs climbed to near ten-month peak on Monday amid strong energy fundamentals
Crude oil prices moved within a tight range on Monday as traders balanced OPEC+’s recent supply increase against the group’s plan to pause additional output hikes in Q1 2026, amid fears of oversupply and sluggish manufacturing activity in Asia. Business surveys released Monday indicated that Asia’s key manufacturing hubs continued to face challenges in October. Brent crude slipped by 0.3% to $64.89 per barrel, while WTI crude inched up by 0.1% to $61.05 per barrel.
The NBP spot price soared by 2.5% to 75 p/therm on Monday, spurred by news that EDF’s Hartlepool 1 nuclear reactor in northeast England will stay offline until 2 December, extending an outage originally scheduled to end this week. Prices were further supported by downgraded wind generation forecasts and the prospect of cooler weather from mid-November.
On the forward curve, expectations of tighter gas and LNG supply lifted the Summer 2026 delivery contract up by 1.3% to 75.58 p/therm.
European spot electricity prices posted mixed trends on Monday. The German day-ahead power price hiked by 54% to 73.55 EUR/MWh, amid expectations of lower wind generation. In contrast, the French equivalent contract slumped by 23% to 20.95 EUR/MWh, on forecasts of easing demand.
On the forward curve, prices were supported by strength in gas and carbon markets. The German 2026 delivery contract advanced by over 2% to 88.86 EUR/MWh, while the French equivalent contract rose by 1.3% to 55.30 EUR/MWh.
European carbon prices reached their highest level in nearly ten months on Monday, fuelled by active buying and short-covering after weather forecasts pushed German power and TTF gas prices higher. The rally was further supported by reports that Germany plans additional electricity relief for industry. As a result, the EUAs expiring in Dec-2025 surged by 3.4% to 81.20 EUR/tonne.
The NBP spot price soared by 2.5% to 75 p/therm on Monday, spurred by news that EDF’s Hartlepool 1 nuclear reactor in northeast England will stay offline until 2 December, extending an outage originally scheduled to end this week. Prices were further supported by downgraded wind generation forecasts and the prospect of cooler weather from mid-November.
On the forward curve, expectations of tighter gas and LNG supply lifted the Summer 2026 delivery contract up by 1.3% to 75.58 p/therm.
European spot electricity prices posted mixed trends on Monday. The German day-ahead power price hiked by 54% to 73.55 EUR/MWh, amid expectations of lower wind generation. In contrast, the French equivalent contract slumped by 23% to 20.95 EUR/MWh, on forecasts of easing demand.
On the forward curve, prices were supported by strength in gas and carbon markets. The German 2026 delivery contract advanced by over 2% to 88.86 EUR/MWh, while the French equivalent contract rose by 1.3% to 55.30 EUR/MWh.
European carbon prices reached their highest level in nearly ten months on Monday, fuelled by active buying and short-covering after weather forecasts pushed German power and TTF gas prices higher. The rally was further supported by reports that Germany plans additional electricity relief for industry. As a result, the EUAs expiring in Dec-2025 surged by 3.4% to 81.20 EUR/tonne.