Nov 12, 2025
Global demand for oil and gas may increase until 2050.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Wednesday that global oil and gas demand might continue to grow until 2050, shifting away from earlier expectations for a rapid transition to cleaner fuels and indicating that climate goals are unlikely to be met.
Under pressure from the U.S. for a greater focus on clean energy, especially during President Trump's administration, the IEA's predictions shifted. The IEA had previously forecasted that global oil demand would peak this decade under the Biden administration, suggesting no further investment in oil and gas was needed to meet climate targets.
Trump's Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, labeled the IEA's demand peak forecasts as "nonsensical." Funded by member countries with the U.S. as the largest contributor, the IEA's analyses inform global energy policies.
In its annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA projected that under current policies, oil demand would reach 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, a 13% increase from 2024 levels. Global energy demand is expected to rise by 90 exajoules by 2035, a 15% increase from current levels, based on existing government policies rather than climate aspirations.
The IEA last utilized the "current policies scenario" in 2019 before shifting to more optimistic predictions in line with clean energy transitions and net zero emissions commitments from 2020. This year's outlook abandoned that pledge scenario.
Although the IEA intended to evaluate new country climate targets for 2031-2035, insufficient submissions hindered a comprehensive analysis. In the stated policies scenario, which considers proposed but not necessarily enacted policies, oil demand peaks around 2030. The IEA clarifies that its scenarios explore various potential outcomes and are not definitive forecasts.
Investment in new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects has surged, with operations for about 300 billion cubic meters of new LNG export capacity expected to commence by 2030, representing a 50% increase. Under the current policies scenario, the global LNG market is projected to grow from approximately 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm in 2035 and 1,020 bcm in 2050, driven by demand in the power sector, particularly from data centers and AI growth. Global investment in data centers could reach $580 billion in 2025, surpassing the $540 billion spent globally on oil supply.
The report also outlines a net zero scenario aiming for a reduction in global energy emissions to net zero by 2050. Despite over 190 countries pledging at the 2015 Paris climate talks to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, the report indicates that all scenarios forecast surpassing this threshold, with a potential decline only under the net zero scenario if carbon removal technology is implemented.
Under pressure from the U.S. for a greater focus on clean energy, especially during President Trump's administration, the IEA's predictions shifted. The IEA had previously forecasted that global oil demand would peak this decade under the Biden administration, suggesting no further investment in oil and gas was needed to meet climate targets.
Trump's Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, labeled the IEA's demand peak forecasts as "nonsensical." Funded by member countries with the U.S. as the largest contributor, the IEA's analyses inform global energy policies.
In its annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA projected that under current policies, oil demand would reach 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, a 13% increase from 2024 levels. Global energy demand is expected to rise by 90 exajoules by 2035, a 15% increase from current levels, based on existing government policies rather than climate aspirations.
The IEA last utilized the "current policies scenario" in 2019 before shifting to more optimistic predictions in line with clean energy transitions and net zero emissions commitments from 2020. This year's outlook abandoned that pledge scenario.
Although the IEA intended to evaluate new country climate targets for 2031-2035, insufficient submissions hindered a comprehensive analysis. In the stated policies scenario, which considers proposed but not necessarily enacted policies, oil demand peaks around 2030. The IEA clarifies that its scenarios explore various potential outcomes and are not definitive forecasts.
Investment in new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects has surged, with operations for about 300 billion cubic meters of new LNG export capacity expected to commence by 2030, representing a 50% increase. Under the current policies scenario, the global LNG market is projected to grow from approximately 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm in 2035 and 1,020 bcm in 2050, driven by demand in the power sector, particularly from data centers and AI growth. Global investment in data centers could reach $580 billion in 2025, surpassing the $540 billion spent globally on oil supply.
The report also outlines a net zero scenario aiming for a reduction in global energy emissions to net zero by 2050. Despite over 190 countries pledging at the 2015 Paris climate talks to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, the report indicates that all scenarios forecast surpassing this threshold, with a potential decline only under the net zero scenario if carbon removal technology is implemented.