Dec 5, 2025
Daily (05.12.2025): Renewed geopolitical tensions lifted oil, strong supply kept gas low
Crude oil prices rose on Thursday, supported by renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and stalled U.S.–Russia diplomatic efforts. On 1 December, Ukrainian forces targeted the Druzhba pipeline, a key route for Russian oil exports to Hungary and Slovakia. While the pipeline operator later confirmed that flows from Russia’s Tambov region were unaffected, the strike reignited concerns over possible supply disruptions. Hence, Brent crude added 1% to settle at $63.26 per barrel, while WTI crude advanced by 1.2% to $59.67 per barrel.
Restored Norwegian production after outages added to supply, pushing the British spot gas price down by 6% to 68.10 p/therm on Thursday.
With Asia’s benchmark LNG price at a 3.5-month low, the forward curve also retreated. The Summer 2026 delivery contract decreased by 3.2%, settling at 64.57 p/therm, as weak Asian LNG demand kept European supplies ample.
European spot electricity prices jumped on Thursday as wind output was forecast to halve. The German day-ahead power price surged by 6.8% to 133.29 EUR/MWh, while the French equivalent contract soared by 5% to around 80 EUR/MWh.
On the forward curve, prices eased amid weaker gas markets and forecasts of mild temperatures through most of December. The German 2026 delivery contract fell by 1.3% to 84.32 EUR/MWh, while the French equivalent contract declined by 1.2%, settling at 48.46 EUR/MWh.
Carbon prices in Europe firmed on Thursday, as traders positioned ahead of December expiries, despite analysts noting that recent heavy long positions could prompt near-term profit-taking. Consequently, the EUAs expiring in Dec-2025 traded 0.8% higher at 82.43 EUR/tonne.
Restored Norwegian production after outages added to supply, pushing the British spot gas price down by 6% to 68.10 p/therm on Thursday.
With Asia’s benchmark LNG price at a 3.5-month low, the forward curve also retreated. The Summer 2026 delivery contract decreased by 3.2%, settling at 64.57 p/therm, as weak Asian LNG demand kept European supplies ample.
European spot electricity prices jumped on Thursday as wind output was forecast to halve. The German day-ahead power price surged by 6.8% to 133.29 EUR/MWh, while the French equivalent contract soared by 5% to around 80 EUR/MWh.
On the forward curve, prices eased amid weaker gas markets and forecasts of mild temperatures through most of December. The German 2026 delivery contract fell by 1.3% to 84.32 EUR/MWh, while the French equivalent contract declined by 1.2%, settling at 48.46 EUR/MWh.
Carbon prices in Europe firmed on Thursday, as traders positioned ahead of December expiries, despite analysts noting that recent heavy long positions could prompt near-term profit-taking. Consequently, the EUAs expiring in Dec-2025 traded 0.8% higher at 82.43 EUR/tonne.