Jan 9, 2026
Norway's production of oil and gas is expected to decline by 2030.
Norway's offshore oil and gas production is expected to remain relatively stable in 2026, although investments are anticipated to drop by 6.6%, indicating a decrease in activity and output as the decade progresses, according to the country's regulatory body.
The recent high levels of investment have been driven by significant projects that are nearing completion, while new endeavors tend to be smaller, as reported by the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD).
Torgeir Stordal, the NOD head, informed Reuters that the production plateau is expected to continue until 2027, after which production is likely to decline.
This year, Norway's total oil and gas output is forecasted to remain around 4.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed), with a decrease to nearly 3.5 million boed by 2030, based on the regulator's latest forecasts.
Planned spending, including exploration, is estimated at 256 billion Norwegian crowns ($25.5 billion) in 2026, a decrease from 275 billion last year after adjusting for inflation, and is projected to fall to 209 billion in 2030, which is 24% lower than the previous year.
The diminishing project pipeline is already affecting suppliers, prompting some to begin downsizing. Stordal noted a shift away from large stand-alone developments towards more subsea projects, impacting the supply industry.
Natural gas production is expected to reach 123.1 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2026, equivalent to 2.1 million boed, marking an increase from 119.8 bcm last year but still below the record of 124.2 bcm set in 2024.
Stordal commented that gas output is likely to remain high for the next three to four years, reinforcing Norway's position as Europe's leading supplier following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Oil production, which includes condensate and natural gas liquids, is projected to decline slightly to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) this year from 2.04 million bpd last year, which was the highest level recorded since 2009.
The recent high levels of investment have been driven by significant projects that are nearing completion, while new endeavors tend to be smaller, as reported by the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD).
Torgeir Stordal, the NOD head, informed Reuters that the production plateau is expected to continue until 2027, after which production is likely to decline.
This year, Norway's total oil and gas output is forecasted to remain around 4.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed), with a decrease to nearly 3.5 million boed by 2030, based on the regulator's latest forecasts.
Planned spending, including exploration, is estimated at 256 billion Norwegian crowns ($25.5 billion) in 2026, a decrease from 275 billion last year after adjusting for inflation, and is projected to fall to 209 billion in 2030, which is 24% lower than the previous year.
The diminishing project pipeline is already affecting suppliers, prompting some to begin downsizing. Stordal noted a shift away from large stand-alone developments towards more subsea projects, impacting the supply industry.
Natural gas production is expected to reach 123.1 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2026, equivalent to 2.1 million boed, marking an increase from 119.8 bcm last year but still below the record of 124.2 bcm set in 2024.
Stordal commented that gas output is likely to remain high for the next three to four years, reinforcing Norway's position as Europe's leading supplier following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Oil production, which includes condensate and natural gas liquids, is projected to decline slightly to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) this year from 2.04 million bpd last year, which was the highest level recorded since 2009.