Feb 20, 2026
Spanish prices expected to fall significantly short of February forecasts.
The Spanish spot index is expected to fall significantly below future projections in February due to high wind production during and after Storm Kristin, while heavy rainfall has impacted March negatively.
For the period of 1-20 February, the Spanish spot index averaged €12.66/MWh, a sharp decrease from €116.88/MWh during the same timeframe last year. It is anticipated to average around €18.85/MWh for the entire month, based on its weighted average for the first 20 days and recent evaluations and trades for the upcoming weekend and week 9. This is considerably lower than the February contract's expiration price of €50.55/MWh.
High wind generation has exerted downward pressure on the February spot index. Currently, wind output in Spain averages 11.2GW, an increase of about 123% compared to last year and significantly higher than the three-year average of 6.6GW. However, wind production is expected to normalize toward the end of February, predicting an average of 6.9GW over the following eight days, as per data from the global analytics firm Kpler.
The extreme weather conditions at the start of February, particularly due to Storm Kristin, have led to the unusually high wind output in Spain and Portugal.
Additionally, the storm brought significant rainfall, with hydro stocks in Spain registering three of their five highest week-on-week increases in the last three weeks.
Despite the rise in hydro stocks, output has remained stable compared to the same period last year. However, the increase in hydro reserves has negatively affected the front-month contract. Since the storm's impact, March has decreased by €13.75/MWh and is €21.65/MWh lower than the equivalent contract's price last year.
The unprecedented hydro stocks are particularly important for March, which has achieved the highest average output from hydro sources in Spain over the last three years. Current snowpack levels are also at record highs for the season, suggesting substantial runoff to the Ebro basin reservoirs when snowmelt occurs around mid-April.
In February, gas-fired output has declined, further contributing to low spot prices in Spain. Production from combined-cycle gas turbines has fallen by about 25% compared to last year, averaging only 3.6GW, which is approximately 30% lower than the 5.1GW average for February over the last three years.
This month has also seen a notable disparity between Spanish and Portuguese spot prices. The Portuguese spot has consistently been lower than the Spanish price almost every day in February, often by a considerable margin. On average, there has been a daily price difference of €7.31/MWh in favor of Spain. In the same period of 2025, the average price differential was only €0.13/MWh, with both indexes equal on 16 out of 20 days.
Portugal has net exported approximately 580MW to Spain throughout February. This marks the first month in which Portugal has had a net export position to Spain since March 2024, and the first time in February since 2021. High wind generation in Portugal, partly attributed to Storm Kristin, has increased by about 130% compared to last year and over 80% compared to the three-year average.
Currently, Portugal's hydro reserves are around 3.1TWh, which is 94.1% of total capacity. This is 18.7 percentage points higher than the levels recorded last year. However, hydro generation in Portugal has been low this month, averaging just 2.7GW, a decrease of about 20% from last year. Increased generation will likely be necessary in the coming weeks to avoid overspill or controlled releases, similar to what occurred in Spain last year as reservoirs approached record levels.
For the period of 1-20 February, the Spanish spot index averaged €12.66/MWh, a sharp decrease from €116.88/MWh during the same timeframe last year. It is anticipated to average around €18.85/MWh for the entire month, based on its weighted average for the first 20 days and recent evaluations and trades for the upcoming weekend and week 9. This is considerably lower than the February contract's expiration price of €50.55/MWh.
High wind generation has exerted downward pressure on the February spot index. Currently, wind output in Spain averages 11.2GW, an increase of about 123% compared to last year and significantly higher than the three-year average of 6.6GW. However, wind production is expected to normalize toward the end of February, predicting an average of 6.9GW over the following eight days, as per data from the global analytics firm Kpler.
The extreme weather conditions at the start of February, particularly due to Storm Kristin, have led to the unusually high wind output in Spain and Portugal.
Additionally, the storm brought significant rainfall, with hydro stocks in Spain registering three of their five highest week-on-week increases in the last three weeks.
Despite the rise in hydro stocks, output has remained stable compared to the same period last year. However, the increase in hydro reserves has negatively affected the front-month contract. Since the storm's impact, March has decreased by €13.75/MWh and is €21.65/MWh lower than the equivalent contract's price last year.
The unprecedented hydro stocks are particularly important for March, which has achieved the highest average output from hydro sources in Spain over the last three years. Current snowpack levels are also at record highs for the season, suggesting substantial runoff to the Ebro basin reservoirs when snowmelt occurs around mid-April.
In February, gas-fired output has declined, further contributing to low spot prices in Spain. Production from combined-cycle gas turbines has fallen by about 25% compared to last year, averaging only 3.6GW, which is approximately 30% lower than the 5.1GW average for February over the last three years.
This month has also seen a notable disparity between Spanish and Portuguese spot prices. The Portuguese spot has consistently been lower than the Spanish price almost every day in February, often by a considerable margin. On average, there has been a daily price difference of €7.31/MWh in favor of Spain. In the same period of 2025, the average price differential was only €0.13/MWh, with both indexes equal on 16 out of 20 days.
Portugal has net exported approximately 580MW to Spain throughout February. This marks the first month in which Portugal has had a net export position to Spain since March 2024, and the first time in February since 2021. High wind generation in Portugal, partly attributed to Storm Kristin, has increased by about 130% compared to last year and over 80% compared to the three-year average.
Currently, Portugal's hydro reserves are around 3.1TWh, which is 94.1% of total capacity. This is 18.7 percentage points higher than the levels recorded last year. However, hydro generation in Portugal has been low this month, averaging just 2.7GW, a decrease of about 20% from last year. Increased generation will likely be necessary in the coming weeks to avoid overspill or controlled releases, similar to what occurred in Spain last year as reservoirs approached record levels.