Mar 3, 2026
Exxon and TotalEnergies' production is threatened by the war in Iran.
Exxon Mobil, TotalEnergies, and Shell are among the companies that face increased risks of interruptions in oil and gas production due to the conflict between the U.S. and Israel against Iran, according to analysts in recent research notes.
The airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran on Saturday, which resulted in the death of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have unsettled the energy market.
The ongoing conflict has led to the closure of certain oil and gas fields in the area and has significantly disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passageway for tankers transporting crude oil, fuel, and liquefied natural gas from major Middle Eastern producers to their clients.
Analysts from Jefferies estimate that 29% of TotalEnergies' overall production comes from the Middle East, while the same region represents 20% of Exxon's and Shell's oil and gas output. Although the war poses a risk to some production, it has driven up oil and gas prices, which may bolster the profits for these companies. On Monday, Brent crude futures rose approximately 7% to settle at $77.74 per barrel, and European natural gas prices surged by around 40%.
A major impact could be felt in Exxon's liquefied natural gas division, with about 60% of its LNG business located in the Middle East, according to TD Cowen. Exxon chose not to comment on its regional operations, and Shell and TotalEnergies did not respond to requests for statements.
All three companies are partners with QatarEnergy, the state-owned energy firm of Qatar, which ceased LNG production on Monday following Iranian drone strikes on its facilities. Qatar is responsible for around 20% of the global LNG supply.
Exxon is expected to benefit from the commencement of production at Golden Pass LNG, its Texas project, slated to begin later this month, according to Barclays analyst Betty Jiang. In addition to its LNG interests in the Middle East, TotalEnergies also has oil and gas production activities in the UAE, while Shell maintains a significant presence in Oman.
The airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran on Saturday, which resulted in the death of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have unsettled the energy market.
The ongoing conflict has led to the closure of certain oil and gas fields in the area and has significantly disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passageway for tankers transporting crude oil, fuel, and liquefied natural gas from major Middle Eastern producers to their clients.
Analysts from Jefferies estimate that 29% of TotalEnergies' overall production comes from the Middle East, while the same region represents 20% of Exxon's and Shell's oil and gas output. Although the war poses a risk to some production, it has driven up oil and gas prices, which may bolster the profits for these companies. On Monday, Brent crude futures rose approximately 7% to settle at $77.74 per barrel, and European natural gas prices surged by around 40%.
A major impact could be felt in Exxon's liquefied natural gas division, with about 60% of its LNG business located in the Middle East, according to TD Cowen. Exxon chose not to comment on its regional operations, and Shell and TotalEnergies did not respond to requests for statements.
All three companies are partners with QatarEnergy, the state-owned energy firm of Qatar, which ceased LNG production on Monday following Iranian drone strikes on its facilities. Qatar is responsible for around 20% of the global LNG supply.
Exxon is expected to benefit from the commencement of production at Golden Pass LNG, its Texas project, slated to begin later this month, according to Barclays analyst Betty Jiang. In addition to its LNG interests in the Middle East, TotalEnergies also has oil and gas production activities in the UAE, while Shell maintains a significant presence in Oman.