Structural gas demand destruction poses a risk to the global LNG market.

The head of the Gas Exporting Countries’ Forum cautioned that the ongoing war in the Middle East could cause lasting damage to global natural gas demand, highlighting the extensive repercussions of the conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran.

The war has already affected international gas supplies due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on energy facilities in the Persian Gulf, which Iran initiated in response to U.S. and Israeli actions that started in late February. According to Philip Mshelbila from the GECF, it would take months to restore gas exports, even if the conflict were to end soon. If the fighting continues, however, the disruption may have permanent consequences.

Mshelbila indicated that if the conflict ceased today, recovery would take about six months to a year. However, if it persists for six months, the immediate changes witnessed could become more entrenched. He made these comments at an industry event in Paris, as reported by Reuters.

He also pointed out that many forecasts for the gas market initially predicted a shift to oversupply this year, driven by new production capacity in the U.S. and slower demand growth. "This conflict has clearly impacted that outlook, and it's uncertain whether this is merely a delay or if the expected oversupply will materialize at all," added the GECF secretary-general.

Even if an oversupply eventually occurs, it won't be happening soon. Recent data for Asia shows that liquefied natural gas imports are on track to hit their lowest monthly figures in nearly six years, according to Clyde Russell from Reuters. These statistics, sourced from Kpler, illustrate demand decline stemming from the conflict. In some instances, like China, demand reductions are being made voluntarily, while in others, such as Pakistan, the decline is a result of rising LNG prices amid supply constraints.

Asia is anticipated to import approximately 19.03 million tons of liquefied gas this month, down from 20.69 million tons in March and a seasonal peak of 26.34 million tons in December 2025, as per Kpler’s data. For China, the decrease is even more pronounced, with April's estimate at 3.36 million tons compared to 7.66 million tons in December 2025, marking the lowest figure since April 2018, according to Russell.

With Qatari LNG mostly unavailable, importers are increasingly turning to U.S. gas and, to a lesser extent, Russian gas. Other producers have not increased their volumes, despite having sufficient resources, Mshelbila noted.

"While some African nations possess excess LNG and pipeline gas capacity, they are not operating at full levels," he remarked, adding that "none of the export pipelines to Europe from Algeria or Libya are fully utilized." Consequently, U.S. liquefied natural gas is compensating for the volumes lost from the Middle East.

He indicated that African LNG producers are underperforming in capacity, without specifying the reasons. However, Nigeria has begun exporting more LNG to Asia since the onset of the conflict and has plans to raise its LNG plant capacity from 22 million tons to 30 million tons.

Algeria's gas exports to Europe have also been increasing, even prior to the war. Last year, Algeria supplied approximately 39-40 billion cubic meters of natural gas via pipelines and LNG, accounting for 13 to 14% of Europe’s total gas imports, as reported by Euronews. This contrasts with the 12 billion cubic meters of Qatari gas imports, which represented between 7% and 9% of total imports.

The challenge lies in Algeria's inability to swiftly increase its exports to Europe to fill the gap created by the force majeure at QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan complex. Nonetheless, Algeria is taking steps to address this; it recently initiated an oil and gas tender for seven blocks, with submissions due by November. This effort is part of the government’s goal to raise natural gas production to 200 billion cubic meters annually by 2030, requiring investments estimated between $50 and $60 billion.

However, these plans are long-term, while the immediate supply issues are acute. It is this urgency that may lead to enduring weaknesses in demand. “Typically, a crisis presents an opportunity: Fill the gaps! Capture the market! Unfortunately, we're falling short because we lack the upstream resources to meet infrastructure needs,” Mshelbila stated. “The reserves exist, but they remain untapped.”