TTF futures shift from loss to profit after Iran turns down Trump's Hormuz proposal.

European benchmark natural gas prices recovered from an initial 3% decline at Monday's opening, gaining 1.3% in morning trading in Amsterdam, as commodity markets remain wary of the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

On Monday, the front-month contract for Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, serving as Europe's gas trading benchmark, rose by 1.3% to $39.67 (46.48 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh).

Prices initially fell nearly 3% at the start of trading on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump declared that the U.S. would guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz. However, futures turned around, gaining over 1% after Iran cautioned the U.S. against attempts to approach or enter the strait.

There is also uncertainty regarding how the vessel guidance would be implemented.

“Reports suggest that, for the moment, the plan won’t involve the U.S. Navy escorting ships. Even if this enables vessels to exit the Persian Gulf, we are likely to observe minimal inbound traffic,” said ING's commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey on Monday.

“This would provide only temporary relief as floating storage departs the Persian Gulf,” they added.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted nearly 20% of global daily LNG flows, causing a blockage of all shipments from Qatar and the UAE.

Currently, Qatar's LNG is trapped in the Strait of Hormuz, and its major liquefaction facility, Ras Laffan— the largest in the world—suffered significant damage due to an Iranian missile strike in mid-March. This damage has forced Qatar to halt production, with repairs anticipated to take up to five years.

In this context, Europe faces heightened gas price volatility during the refilling season, complicating and potentially increasing costs ahead of the upcoming winter. Although TTF futures prices have decreased from peaks seen in March, they remain about 40% higher than levels prior to the commencement of the conflict in the Middle East.