Crude prices rose on Monday as escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran increased fears of supply disruptions, pushing a geopolitical risk premium into the market. Additional support came from reports of historically low OPEC production and new US sanctions on individuals and companies linked to Iran’s oil exports to China. Hence, Brent crude added 3% to $104.21 per barrel, and WTI crude increased by 3% to $98.07 per barrel.
British near term gas prices continued to rise on Monday amid increased heating demand due to colder weather. Additionally, weaker LNG arrivals and reduced Langeled flows due to maintenance lent further support. As a result, the NBP spot contract surged by over 4% to settle at 115.20 p/therm.
Further on the curve, the Winter 2026 contract gained 4% to 115.32 p/therm, driven by higher geopolitical tensions amid conflicting statements from Iran and the United States.
European day-ahead power prices advanced on Monday, driven by a dip in renewable output alongside slight reductions in nuclear production in France. Thus, the German spot price soared by almost 6% to 93.31 EUR/MWh, while its French counterpart jumped by 136% to 69.63 EUR/MWh.
Forward contracts also moved higher, supported by a rally in carbon permits. Germany’s Cal 27 electricity contract settled at 92.31 EUR/MWh, whereas the French front-year contract closed at 53.32 EUR/MWh.
On Monday, carbon prices rose on strong demand and policy support, including industrial decarbonization schemes and the EU’s CBAM mechanism, which help reinforce a structural price floor. However, the market remains volatile due to upcoming ETS reforms and uncertainty around future climate policy, which could weaken sentiment.
Consequently, the EUAs expiring in Dec-2026 traded at 77.18 EUR/tonne.
May 12, 2026