Delegates state that OPEC+ has a strategy to finalize a series of production quota increases.

Key OPEC+ members plan to continue increasing oil quotas in the coming months, aiming to restore a portion of previously halted production — at least on paper — by the end of September, according to delegates.

The group has already agreed to reinstate about two-thirds of a supply cut of 1.65 million barrels per day that was implemented in 2023. They intend to further raise targets and complete the final segment in three additional monthly increments, though major members are unable to achieve these increases while the war in Iran disrupts exports from the Persian Gulf, according to three anonymous delegates.

The alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has implemented small and symbolic supply hikes during the ongoing conflict. However, there is an urgent global demand for oil to fill the vacuum created by the war, which has resulted in a cumulative deficit of over 1 billion barrels and drained global inventories at an unprecedented rate. This situation has caused fuel prices to spike, increasing the risk of a global recession.

Prior to the outbreak of the war between the US-Israeli alliance and Iran on February 28, eight key members of OPEC and its partners were working to revive crude production that had been halted years ago to manage an oversupply.

OPEC and Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry did not respond to inquiries for comment.

At the start of this month, the membership of the sub-group decreased when the United Arab Emirates decided to leave OPEC after decades of participation, amid tensions with group leader Saudi Arabia regarding production limits.

Despite Abu Dhabi's exit, the remaining seven members approved a theoretical increase of 188,000 barrels per day for June during their recent monthly video conference on May 3. The next meeting, which will address production policy for July and possibly later, is scheduled for June 7.

Removing the UAE theoretically takes out about 144,000 barrels per day from the original 1.65 million barrels per day cut.

The ongoing war is hindering the coalition's ability to meet target increases set in recent months, forcing several Middle Eastern members to significantly scale back production while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked.

Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC's secretariat in Vienna that its production fell further in April to just 6.3 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 1990, according to a monthly report released on Wednesday. Kuwait’s output has dropped to a quarter of pre-war levels, and Iraq and the UAE have also experienced significant losses.

However, the dual challenges of the war and the UAE's unexpected exit are not preventing the alliance from planning for the future.

OPEC+ continues to review the individual maximum production capacities of its members — an assessment commissioned last year — to calibrate output quotas more accurately by 2027, according to three delegates. This evaluation is being carried out by the Dallas-based consulting firm DeGolyer and MacNaughton Corp.