Persistent tensions between the US and Iran supported crude prices on Monday, with failed diplomatic efforts and renewed drone activity in the Gulf reinforcing fears over disrupted oil flows. Brent crude rose by 2.6% to $112.10 per barrel, and WTI crude gained 3% to $108.66 per barrel.
Bullish drivers including the Iran conflict and planned maintenance in Norway and the US lifted the NBP spot contract early on Monday, though prices later corrected lower, ending the session down 3.5% at 124.04 p/therm.
Further along the curve, the Winter 2026 delivery contract edged 0.6% higher at 123.25 p/therm as storage refill activity remains slow. Storage stocks have now lagged behind 2022 levels for 24 consecutive days.
European spot electricity prices moved in different directions on Monday. The German day-ahead power price climbed to 128.12 EUR/MWh as weaker wind generation tightened supply. In contrast, the French equivalent contract fell by 7.5% to 45.07 EUR/MWh due to mild weather forecasts.
Further along the curve, the German 2027 delivery contract added 0.2% to 93 EUR/MWh following gains in gas markets, while the French equivalent contract declined by 0.6% to 55.40 EUR/MWh due to bearish fundamentals.
European carbon markets eased slightly on Monday, with steady demand and supportive EU ETS sentiment failing to offset growing geopolitical uncertainty after the US and Iran rejected proposed peace talks. Consequently, the EUAs expiring in Dec-2026 traded at 75.55 EUR/tonne.
May 19, 2026