The dollar stabilized near a six-week peak on Wednesday, as markets remained anxious about the ongoing conflict in Iran and its potential to increase interest rates.
The Japanese yen gained a bit as confidence grew in a June interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, while the Indian rupee plummeted to a new record low due to ongoing pressure from high oil prices.
Oil prices experienced a slight decline on Wednesday after the U.S. indicated progress in negotiations with Iran. However, losses in crude were limited as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed.
This left the broader markets uncertain about the war's conclusion, while concerns about its inflationary effects persisted.
In other developments, the euro remained stable, and the pound held steady ahead of important consumer inflation data.
The dollar is near a six-week high amid speculation of interest rate hikes and uncertainty surrounding Iran. The dollar index and its futures showed a slight increase, approaching levels not seen since early April.
The greenback was supported by rising speculation that stubborn inflation might prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later in the year.
Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson stated on Tuesday evening that while the current monetary policy seemed suitably restrictive, it was "healthy" for financial markets to speculate about possible rate hikes.
Speculation regarding higher rates has led to significant sell-offs in bond markets recently, driving yields to multi-year highs.
This renewed speculation was largely fueled by an energy-driven rise in inflation due to the Iran war.
The conflict disrupted a fifth of global oil supplies, causing prices to soar, which contributed to increased energy cost inflation.
Washington indicated this week that negotiations with Iran were progressing well, though this only resulted in a brief dip in oil prices, which retained most of their recent gains.
The Indian rupee reached a record low, while the Japanese yen remained subdued. Broader currencies showed little movement on Wednesday, as caution regarding interest rates and the Iran conflict kept traders on the sidelines.
The Indian rupee significantly underperformed, with the USD/INR pair climbing 0.1% to a record high of 96.784 rupees.
The rupee suffered due to rising oil prices this week, being particularly vulnerable given India’s heavy dependence on energy imports. Traders also expressed doubts about the Reserve Bank of India's ability to further support the rupee.
The Japanese yen's USD/JPY pair dipped slightly from 159 yen, with the yen remaining generally weak. However, it found some support from growing speculation that the BOJ may raise interest rates next month, particularly in light of the energy-driven inflation surge.
The Australian dollar's AUD/USD pair decreased by 0.1%, while both the Singapore dollar's USD/SGD and the South Korean won's USD/KRW were stable.
The Chinese yuan's USD/CNY pair fell slightly, while the Taiwan dollar's USD/TWD pair remained unchanged. Tensions between China and Taiwan escalated this week following U.S. President Donald Trump's comments about potential arms sales to Taipei and warnings against declaring independence, shortly after a U.S.-China summit.
Taipei criticized Trump's remarks but indicated earlier this week that it would welcome a direct call with him.
May 20, 2026
Dollar stabilizes close to a 6-week high as Iran negotiations and interest rate increases draw attention.
