A sharp escalation in Middle East tensions boosted oil prices on Tuesday. Iran reportedly attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US revoked authorisation for Iranian crude sales and later launched new strikes against the country. As a result, Brent crude closed 3% higher at $74.16 a barrel, while WTI crude rose by nearly 3% to $70.44 per barrel.
The NBP spot contract advanced by 6.4% to 111.10 p/therm on Tuesday, reaching a three-week high as reports that a Qatari LNG tanker had been struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz renewed supply concerns. Forecasts of another heatwave across northwest Europe provided additional support.
Meanwhile, the Winter 2026 delivery contract hiked by 5.3% to 114.76 p/therm, underpinned by low storage inventories, stronger competition from Asia for LNG cargoes and sluggish EU storage injections ahead of winter.
European spot electricity prices extended gains on Tuesday. The German day-ahead contract hiked by 35% to just under 99 EUR/MWh as forecasts indicated lower wind generation. Meanwhile, the French equivalent contract surged by 28% to 93.34 EUR/MWh after EDF announced additional heat-related nuclear cuts, with outages expected to reach 2.9 GW on Wednesday, or around 5% of France's nuclear capacity.
Further out the curve, stronger gas prices supported power futures. The German 2027 delivery contract increased by 1% to 95.21 EUR/MWh, while the French equivalent contract soared by 2% to 59.24 EUR/MWh.
European carbon markets moved lower on Tuesday, with the market continuing to decouple from gas and oil. Instead, trading was driven by technical positioning and uncertainty surrounding future EU climate policy. As a result, the EUAs expiring in Dec-2026 fell by 2% to 80.19 EUR/tonne.
Jul 8, 2026