Jul 17, 2026

Daily (17.07.2026): Gulf supply concerns keep oil on track for weekly rise despite Thursday pullback

Oil prices softened on Thursday as markets consolidated after a week of strong gains. Continued military exchanges between the US and Iran and reduced crude transit through the Strait of Hormuz kept supply concerns in focus, though traders appeared reluctant to extend the rally further. Hence, Brent crude decreased by nearly 1% to $84.23 per barrel, while WTI crude fell under 1% to settle at $78.95 per barrel.





UK gas prices showed little direction on Thursday. The NBP spot contract edged 0.3% lower at 131.80 p/therm on Thursday, as traders monitored whether prices could stabilise at current levels despite persistent geopolitical risks.

In contrast, the Winter 2026 delivery contract added 0.4% to 133.86 p/therm, as stronger LNG demand in Asia and tighter regional supply continued to underpin longer-dated prices.

European spot power prices retreated on Thursday. The German spot price slumped by 12% to 140.63 EUR/MWh as higher wind generation and lower demand eased supply pressures. Meanwhile, the French spot price dropped by 8% to 140.73 EUR/MWh as cooler temperatures reduced demand, offsetting the impact of EDF extending 2.8 GW of heat-related nuclear output restrictions, equivalent to around 12% of available capacity, into Friday.

Further along the curve, weaker carbon prices weighed on power futures. The German Cal-2027 contract lost 0.8% to 103.24 EUR/MWh, and the French Cal-2027 inched up by 0.2% to 64.09 EUR/MWh.

Ahead of Friday's EU ETS reform announcement, traders continued to reduce exposure in the carbon market on Thursday, pushing European allowance prices lower. Consequently, the EUAs expiring in Dec-2026 fell by 2.4% to 79.19 EUR/tonne.