EIA Raises 2026 U.S. Oil Production Estimate to Nearly 14 Million Bpd

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has increased its forecast for U.S. crude oil production in 2026 in the most recent short-term energy outlook (STEO) released earlier this month.

In its July STEO, the EIA now anticipates that U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, will average 13.78 million barrels per day this year. This latest STEO is part of a series of updates that have raised the EIA's production predictions for the year.

Previously, in its June STEO, the EIA estimated an average of 13.72 million barrels per day for U.S. crude oil production in 2026. The May STEO projected an average of 13.65 million barrels per day, while the April STEO had a forecast of 13.51 million barrels per day for 2026.

For 2027, the EIA's July STEO slightly reduced the projected crude oil production but still expected it to exceed 14 million barrels per day, estimating an average of 14.03 million barrels per day. In contrast, the June STEO had forecasted this output at 14.15 million barrels per day.

Historically, U.S. crude oil production has never reached an annual or even monthly average of 14 million barrels per day, according to EIA data. The output has averaged 13 million barrels per day on two annual occasions and frequently on a monthly basis.

Data on the EIA website, last updated on June 30 and covering from 1859 to 2025, indicates that the highest average annual U.S. crude oil production occurred in 2025, averaging 13.586 million barrels per day. Prior to that, the only other year to average 13 million barrels per day was 2024, with 13.235 million barrels per day.

The monthly production data, also updated on June 30 and spanning from January 1920 to April 2026, revealed that the highest average monthly production was in April of this year at 13.934 million barrels per day.

The second highest was in October 2025 at 13.864 million barrels per day, and the third highest was in September 2025 at 13.828 million barrels per day.

The data indicated that monthly U.S. crude oil production averaged 13 million barrels per day on 31 occasions, with four occurrences in 2026, twelve in 2025, eleven in 2024, and four in 2023.

In its July STEO, the EIA projected that the Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, would contribute 11.34 million barrels per day to the total estimated production of 13.78 million barrels per day for 2026.

The Federal Gulf of Mexico is expected to add 1.99 million barrels per day, while Alaska is projected to contribute 0.45 million barrels per day, according to the STEO.

For 2027, the Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, are anticipated to account for 11.65 million barrels per day of the total estimated 14.03 million barrels per day. The Federal Gulf of Mexico is expected to contribute 1.89 million barrels per day, and Alaska 0.50 million barrels per day as per the STEO.

The EIA's July STEO indicated that total U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.59 million barrels per day in 2025. The Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, contributed 11.27 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of Mexico contributed 1.90 million barrels per day, and Alaska contributed 0.42 million barrels per day.

A quarterly forecast included in the latest STEO suggested that total U.S. production, including lease condensate, would average 13.78 million barrels per day in Q3, 13.88 million in Q4, 13.99 million in Q1 of the following year, 14.07 million in Q2, 14.00 million in Q3, and 14.07 million in Q4.

This breakdown showed that total U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.57 million barrels per day in Q1 of this year and 13.88 million barrels per day in Q2.

For 2025, total U.S. crude oil production was 13.28 million barrels per day in Q1, 13.51 million barrels per day in Q2, 13.78 million barrels per day in Q3, and 13.77 million barrels per day in Q4, according to the July STEO.

As noted in the latest statistical review of world energy by the Energy Institute (EI), the U.S. was the largest oil producer globally last year.

The report revealed that the U.S. produced 21.065 million barrels of oil per day in 2025, reflecting a 3.9 percent year-over-year increase and accounting for 20.9 percent of total oil production that year. It also highlighted that U.S. oil production experienced an average growth rate of 5.1 percent from 2015 to 2025.

In terms of crude oil and condensate, the U.S. produced 13.586 million barrels per day last year, marking a 2.7 percent increase and representing 15.8 percent of the world's total production. Over the period from 2015 to 2025, average yearly growth in this sector was 3.7 percent, as noted in the report.