OPEC+ is expected to increase oil output targets again starting in September.

OPEC+ oil-producing nations are expected to agree on a further increase in output targets starting in September during their meeting on August 2, according to three sources. This move comes despite the ongoing Iran conflict, which is preventing some members from increasing production.

Recently, the group has been raising output targets in anticipation of regaining market share once the war concludes. However, their plans have faced delays due to renewed hostilities and disruptions to oil flows from both the Gulf and, more recently, the Red Sea.

Seven key OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman—are likely to raise their output target by approximately 188,000 barrels per day for September, consistent with increases made in June, July, and August, as cited by sources to Reuters. OPEC and Russian officials did not provide immediate comments, and the sources spoke on the condition of anonymity, noting that no final decision has been reached.

Currently, OPEC+ production levels are significantly below their quotas, largely due to the Iran conflict affecting exports from Gulf nations. According to OPEC data, the group produced 36.28 million barrels per day in June, a decrease from nearly 43 million barrels per day in February before the war began.

The upcoming meeting on August 2 coincides with a rise in oil prices to $100 a barrel, amid renewed worries over Gulf exports following the collapse of an initial U.S.-Iran peace deal that had allowed increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, recent Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers have disrupted a major Gulf route for these exports.

The seven OPEC+ countries are increasing their output as part of a gradual rollback of a 1.65 million barrels per day supply cut agreed upon in 2023, a time when the group still included the United Arab Emirates, which exited OPEC in May. From April to August, these seven nations have raised their output quotas by 958,000 barrels per day. A further increase of about 188,000 barrels per day in September would completely reverse the 2023 cut, accounting for the UAE's departure, as calculated by Reuters.

OPEC+ consists of 21 members, including Iran, but in recent years, only these seven countries and the UAE prior to its exit have been involved in monthly production management.